Shanghai International Airport (600009)
Report summary: Duty-free business is still the main contradiction of Shanghai Airports. Since 2016, benefiting from a new round of tax-free bidding and the rapid growth of the tax-free industry, an airport segment has experienced a round of rising prices, as the airport’s tax-free business also performed simultaneously.Certainty (guarantee floor rent + clear demand) and the high prosperity and growth of the cosmetics industry (one of the important channels for foreign cosmetics sales), the airport stock conversion system has changed from traditional transportation / public utility stocks to consumer stocks.
Shanghai Airport, as a typical representative, benefited from the high growth rate of single-month tax-free sales in the first seven months of this year, and the market value once exceeded the market value of 170 billion (corresponding to the 19-year PE 33X).
But after entering 8 months, affected by regional events, passenger explosions in the Beijing-Shanghai airport area fluctuated, dragging the airport’s tax-free sales growth rate to change abruptly, and Shanghai airport variables also dropped from a high level.
In the short term, we judge that Shanghai Airport’s tax-free sales growth rate is expected to usher in marginal improvement in 1Q20. Q4 Pudong Airport’s increase in tax-free sales growth rate is actually a long-term endogenous increase or is subject to short-term external factors.An important basis for whether the system can be maintained in the future.
We think that the other weight is higher.
With the concomitant factors improving in 2020, we expect that the growth rate of duty-free sales at Pudong Airport is expected to pick up, including the additional area of the satellite-free duty-free storefront of satellite halls, potential policy relaxation and capacity increase at any time.
In the long run, there is still room for tax-free growth of Pudong Airport. The value of the super hub configuration is significantly compared with that of South Korea, where the tax-free industry is developed.
Even assuming the current sales structure of Pudong Airport is maintained, we expect that the duty-free sales of Pudong Airport by 2025 will still reach the scale of 30 billion under the background of the increase in conversion rate.
If there is improvement in boutique sales in the future, there is still room for improvement in the overall sales scale.
The investment proposal 武汉夜网论坛 is benchmarked globally. The PE of an airport listed company is estimated to be between 20-40x as a whole. However, for airports in different stages of development, the estimated composition factors are different.
Emerging market countries have benefited from growing international passenger explosions and tax-exempt income, with copyright closer to the ceiling estimate.
The company’s EPS is expected to be 2 in 2019-2021.
25 yuan, corresponding price-earnings ratios of 30X / 28X / 24X, the absolute difference between our company’s DCF discount value and the company’s current market value under the scenario scenario to reduce the difference, maintaining the “recommended” level.
Risk warnings: Tax-free sales are less than expected; growth is less than expected at all times; and the city ‘s tax-free opening will have an impact on airport tax-free.